Weekend Box Office 6/30

[Order66]

YTD: 5-2
Units: +6.3

Play:

Superman Returns over 110 million 5-day weekend (-130) <3.9/3> WSEX

First loss in about a month and a half as Click failed to meet the 42 million needed, coming up two shy. Funny thing is, when I got home and saw the over at -220, I knew there was some value on the under, but I couldn't hit it as I stated last week the over warranted a small play at that number. Those are the breaks. This week, Superman Returns opens in a mammoth 3,915 theaters and is backed with a huge marketing campaign as Warner Brothers knows that many comic book fans are anxiously awaiting the return of Superman. Its been almost 20 years since a Superman movie opened in theaters and like Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (to a lesser degree) the buzz is scorching. Superman is one of the first and best selling comics of all time and with a huge fanbase, people will line up in droves to see the newest installment. Also, with mostly positive reviews, this will only help the box office. Two years ago, Spiderman 2 opened the exact same weekend as Superman Returns and its initial 5 day weekend box office was an astounding 152.4 million in 4,152 theaters (a 36,707 per theater average). While Supeman Returns may not match Spiderman 2's opening weekend box office, it will no doubt in my mind sail over the 110 million needed. Good luck all!

 

[joethor]

do we get the 10.00pm tueday night showings? i have been told yes, but would like to solicit your opinion.

 

[Hoghead]

I am all in on this and I really have to agree with your rationale.Hate to wait 5 days but I actually do regard this as an "investment".Thanks for the guidance on this.You are doing great with the movies.

 

[Order66]

Yes, the Tuesday night showings are included in Wednesday's box office.

 

[Hoghead]

Please keep us updated on the outlook if you can.You usually do anyway.You seem to be able to tell from the early numbers what the indications are.Thanks again

 

[joethor]

my projections, based on tuedays strong numbers (around 5 million) and the 5 day progression of war of the worlds( wed. opening, around the same time of year in 2005, 5 day gross of 100.5). wed-24 thur-16 fri-26.1 sat-28.5 sun-22. 5 day 115.4.

 

[Order66]

Hoghead - I will do my best with the updates, however, I am going to be out of town the rest of this week and on into next week and I may not have my laptop as it is down (broken) at the moment. If I have my laptop I will update once a day hopefully.

 

[Uno]

I agree Order, great post my man.

Does Devil wears prada stand a chance of getting over 16.5 million?

 

[Order66]

Honestly, I don't have a clue about Devil Wears Prada...I would say under, but definitely don't take my advice.

 

[christof]

Under 110 for sure now.

 

[RobFunk]

Under 110 for sure now.

Really?! I think it's still got a shot. Wednesday might be the opening day, but it's still too inconvenient for most movie goers.

 

[Hoghead]

Why do you say under? I am all in on the over 110 mil.

 

[christof]

It will need at least 78 million Fri-Sun, and that isn't likely with a 21 million opening day, including night-before shows.

 

[Order66]

Definitely not what I was expecting for Wednesday as the over is in jeopardy. However, time will tell as Wednesday was a work day and people may not have felt the need to see it opening day, instead waiting for the weekend. Tough to tell after one day's release. It will all depend on Friday's numbers. If Friday sees a sales boost from Wednesday, the over will have a shot and actually will be great shape as Saturday will see a boost as well and Sunday should have numbers about the same as Friday. We will need about a 75-80 million weekend but that is definitely not out of the question.

 

[Hoghead]

What's up with the over 110 mil? I guess no news is bad news.

 

[Order66]

Hoghead - Sorry about the updates, as I haven't been able to post with my computer being down. I'm on my friends at the moment. The over is not even close to hitting, as people did not want to see this for some reason. X-Men: The Last Stand will end up grossing more its opening weekend than Superman Returns will during its first week. Unbelieveable. Hopefully I will bounce back next week but its looks as if I will only have a small play as I doubt the line will be favorable for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest.